Saturday 30 March 2013

When will the General Elections happen in India, will the UPA last the full term?

When will the General Elections happen in India, will the UPA last the full term?

UPA is in a peculiar situation.  Every other day some body from its grand alliance makes a pitch for quitting it and then the very next day the same person says that his party is not leaving the UPA Government.  The latest in the fray to do this kind of stunt was Mulayam Singh. 

Not only did he back away from Samajwadi Party pulling the plug on UPA, he asserted that he will support the full term of UPA.  Mulayam who is now the hot favourite of the Congress bashing committee today said that the UPA will last its full term while latching on to the now famous(or infamous) quote of keeping communal forces at bay.   But do remember this what TMC supremo Mamata to had done a similar thing as did the DMK supremo Karunanidhi.  But when the time was ripe for them they pulled the carpet from under the UPA or should I say when the tide went against them they pulled the plug on UPA.

So do the top brass of UPA including Sonia trust the so called alliance partners?  The question was answered by the PM Dr.Manmohan Singh while on a flight to South Africa, that they were ready to fight a election and he may be dark horse for the third term.  

So this statement makes one thing certain, the Congress part of UPA are not going to take to the whims and fancies of the alliance partners and are silently working in a poll mode. 

After the DMK pullout from the UPA Government alongwith its 18 MPs,  the Congress and allies are left with only 225 MPs.  The halfway mark for Lok Sabha is 271 MPs, so the UPA needs 47 MPs to continue with the Government.  Right now the two outside supporters are the most unpredictable ones in the Indian politics.  SP & BSP are the last of the Aaya Ram Gaya Ram clan that is still left in India.  So can Congress trust these two?  No it doesn't, that is why Mr.P.Chidambaram on Friday was touring UP to make peace with SP and give some dole outs to UP to keep quiet for time being.  

Both the parties from the UP are going all out to get their pound of flesh from the last remnants of UPA.  But even with SP & BSP support the UPA can't cross the half way mark!

This is a right time for elections but is the opposition party the BJP ready for elections.  Right now with the elections due in Karnataka, where BJP's good governance image took a good knock, BJP is still leaving its options open.  As of today it does not favour elections because it does not know the ground support it has or against it.  It should to the party a lot of good if it goes on and announces Mr.Narendra Modi as its prime ministerial candidate.  This is sure to turn the winds in its favour as it can be seen from various fora that the youth of the country are keen on a good Government which provides scam free, corruption free, development focused Government and have put their faith in NaMo.

In the most likely scenario this UPA Government will continue till some kind of explosive bill like the Women's Reservation, the Lok Pal etc. is introduced in the Parliament.  The day such a kind of bill is introduced will be the last day for the UPA.  So tighten your seat belts and start preparing for the Elections which as per simple arithmetic should be announced in November 2013.

My only hope is that whomsoever is elected is given a simple majority by the citizens of India.  My ardent belief is that a person like Narendra Modi should be given a chance to run the Government so he can come true with his words in providing a good Government to us.

Please write in your comments on the political situation in India!

Vijay Prabhu

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